Home > Year-End 2006 Newsletter.
 

Last quarter The Roe Report discussed what the smart money is doing. The timing could not have been better. In December of 2006 the Chairman of NRT, the worlds largest real estate franchiser and owner of Coldwell Banker, Century-21, ERA and Sotheby's went private. When a man raises close to $8 billion from investors and financial institutions there is an underlying belief that the timing is right. Assuming the investors paid 20% down; normal for a commercial transaction of this type and assuming the real estate market returns to year ago levels they stand to double their $2 billion down payment and earn a $4 billion profit. If the stock market continues its upward climb the potential ROI grows even larger.

There is no secret real estate has declined from the record levels of the past decade. However, its best to put things in prospective if you are a buyer, seller or investor. In 2002, the National Association of Realtors decided we needed a measurement to determine how the market is doing from year to year. The index for 2002 was set at 100% for pending home sales (PHSI). Currently the PHSI is running at 109.1% this means today sales are 9.1% ahead of 2002. The market set records in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and dropped back in 2006 to 2003 levels.

Is it a good time to be a seller? Itís not as bad as the media is reporting. I get more contacts off my websites than I get off the MLS which is an indication the market has not fully recovered. Nationally at the end of November new home sales were off 3.2% and existing home sales were up .5%. However, inventories are at record levels which gives buyers many options. On the bright side people are buying. Florida continues to attract over 1,000 new residents each week and interest rates on home mortgages are hovering near record lows.

My recommendations are to do whatís in your best interest and donít be fooled by the media; itís always a year behind the trends. Prices should be stable or increase 1% to 3% in 2007 so you can obtain fair market value for your property; it will just take longer.

Is it a good time to buy? Yes, in my opinion. I donít have a crystal ball so I canít guarantee we have hit bottom, but in my heart of hearts I believe we are near an up swing if is hasnít started already.

Why am I optimistic? I had a record year in 2006. I derive my sales off the Internet where the majority of buyers are located. The sun coast is a worldís best place to live. Maybe its because attitude and results mirror each other. If you think you canít you canít. If you think you can, you just might! Buying or selling, call Cliff Roe, ďThe Condo Pro.Ē

MY PREDICTION: Buyers will continue coming to the gulf coast of Florida to capitalize on low prices, low interest rates, high inventory, weary sellers, and beautiful weather. I see a robust economy, low unemployment, bad weather up north, and Americans with an appetite for real estate.  I do not see a return to the boom times prior to 2006, but I see steady prices and slowly decreasing inventories.  Anecdotal evidence already points to increased activity (Interviews with title companies, residential resale agents, etc.)  If we are not on the upswing, we are darn close.

I see the Internet as the most important way sellers can reach buyers. Thatís why I have a growing number of local and national sites. My sellers receive as much exposure as possible. I program the sites and make the changes necessary allowing them to rank well in the search engines.

Year-to-date / waterfront and waterview condos and townhomes only (no condo-hotels).

Belleair Beach, Belleair Bluffs & Belleair. There are currently 62 condos listed. Sales during 2006 were 33 which represent a decline of 31 from the same period last year when there were 64 sales.

Clearwater and Sandkey. There are currently 956 condos listed. Sales during the 2006 were 312 which represent a decline of 330 from the same period last year when there were 642 sales.

Dunedin. There are currently 106 condos listed. Sales during 2006 were 64 which represent a decline of 13 from the same period last year when there were 77 sales.

Gulfport. There are currently 58 condos listed. Sales during 2006 were 37 which represents a decline of 15 from the same period last year when there were 52 sales.

Indian Rocks Beach. There are currently 150 condos listed. Sales during 2006 were 40 which represent a decline of 55 from the same period last year when there were 95 sales.

Indian Shores. There are currently 214 condos listed. Sales during 2006 were 99 which represent a decline of 67 from the same period last year when there were 166 sales.

Largo. There are currently 33 condos listed. Sales during 2006 were 18 which represent a decline of 9 from the same period last year when there were 27 sales.

Madeira Beach. There are currently 140 condos listed. Sales during 2006 were 46 which represent a decline of 53 from the same period last year when there were 99 sales.

North Redington, Redington Beach. & Redington Shores There are currently 258 condos listed. Sales during 2006 were 59 which represent a decline of 158 from the same period last year when there were 100 sales.

Palm Harbor. There are currently 8 condos listed. Sales during 2006 were 3 which represent a decline of 4 from the same period last year when there were 7 sales.

Seminole. There are currently 21 condos listed. Sales during 2006 were 11which represent a decline of 21 from the same period last year when there were 32 sales.

South Pasadena. There are currently 147 condos listed. Sales during 2006 were 47 which represent a decline of 77 from the same period last year when there were 124 sales.

St Pete & St Pete Beach. There are currently 504 condos listed. Sales during the 2006 were 615 which represent an increase of 207 from the same period last year when there were 403 sales.

Tarpon Springs. There are currently 79 condos listed. Sales during 2006 were 43 which represent a decline of 32 from the same period last year when there were 75 sales.

Tierra Verde. There are currently 87 condos listed. Sales during 2006 were 36 which represent a decline of 133 from the same period last year when there were 77 sales.

Treasure Island. There are currently 201 condos listed. Sales during 2006 were 73 which represent a decline of 95 from the same period last year when there were 206 sales.

TOTALS: Waterfront and waterview condos listed on 1/1/07 was 3,024. Sales in 2006 were 1,536, Sales in 2005 were 2,251. Decline 31.7%. Take out the speculators and the decline would have been cut in half.  This year is the first retirement year for the Baby Boomerís and the peak retirement year will not come until 2012. This is the ideal time to buy because statically demand will increase for the next 20 years.

Buying or Selling, call Cliff Roe, ďThe Condo ProĒ (727) 644-7209.