Home > 2nd Quarter 2009 Newsletter.
 

 

I am not ready to declare real estate has reached a bottom, but there were some interesting developments this quarter. I took 3 weeks off in May to attend conventions and to visit my 18 month old grandson. My office staff put 19 listings under agreement while I was gone. An unusually high number of agents were calling to show my listings. The calls indicate buyers are looking. The calls may also indicate inventory is down and options are limited. The numbers confirm a decline in the units for sale which began during the last quarter of 2008. And finally Appraisers were saying they could see pockets where volume and prices were either stabilized or up.

 

To give you some idea how the market has changed, see the center section where activity by town is listed. I used green to show an improvement and red to show a negative. I highlighted “listings” and the “difference in sales” during the same period last year. We have a lot more greens than reds. The overall number of listings declined dramatically which automatically reduces the months supply. In 5 communities the number of units sold increased, declined in 10 and remained unchanged in the other 3. I believe sales declined due to a lower number of properties being for sale.

 

There are two markets. I have been writing about the experts who say to expect an explosion of foreclosure listings. It has not happened; Due to light inventory I am selling listings as quick as I get them. The second market and the one this newsletter is about are waterfront and water view condos. The graph shows the third quarter is our best each year. Sales are down for each quarter of 2009 vs. last year but again a decline in inventory may be the reason.  I have had domestic and foreign buyers return without being able to find anything they liked. The first step in a recovery will be demand exceeding supply.

 

If you are thinking of selling, this may be a window of opportunity. This would be especially true if a large number of properties are coming to market due to foreclosure. If you are thinking of buying, this may be a good time.  If we don’t get the influx of foreclosures we could be near the market bottom. Both buyers and sellers should consider a reputable appraiser before listing or making an offer. Why not just use me? I spend my days obtaining listings, managing agents, and selling property. An appraiser spends their days  researching the market. I believe I do an excellent job as a Realtor® but I bow to an expert, if I know them to be good.

 

One area we haven't discussed is commercial real estate. As I move around the country I notice malls with a large number of units vacant. The numbers indicate commercial may suffer a harder fall than residential. I watch commercial because we sell it and because I want to see what impact it might have on residential values. It seems logical to me that when a business closes, a number of people are put out of work removing buyers from the market. It will be hard to recover if the number of available buyers  is declining. However, in the retail side of commercial there are a few managers or owners and a large number of low income staffers. While this will affect the overall market it won’t have much impact on water related properties.

 

The following represents an overview of waterfront and water view condo, town home and villa sales in Pinellas County during the second quarter of 2009. The transactions by complex, size, bedrooms, and baths, date closed and price paid are published on the websites listed below each community.

 

Belleair Beach, Belleair Bluffs & Belleair. There are currently 60 condos listed, representing a 20.0 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 were 9, which represents a decrease of 2 from the same period last year.  (for sales by complex visit: www.GulfCoastCondoReport.com and click on Belleair.)

 

Clearwater and Sandkey. There are currently 501 condos listed, representing a 16.3 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 were 92, which represents an decrease of 12 from the same period last year. (for information on sales by complex visit: www.ClearwaterBeach-FL.com, www.Sandkey-FL.com, or www.GulfCoastCondoReport.com and click on Clearwater.)

 

Dunedin. There are currently 91 condos listed, representing a 9.1 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 were 30 which represents an increase of 16 from the same period last year. (for information on sales by complex visit: www.Dunedin-FL.net.)

 

Gulfport. There are currently 37 condos listed, representing a 18.5 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 were 6, which represents no change from the same period last year. (for information on sales visit: www.GulfCoastCondoReport.com & click Gulfport.) 

 

Indian Rocks Beach. There are currently 62 condos listed, representing a 18.6 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 were 10, which represents an increase of 4 from the same period last year. (for information on sales visit: www.IndianRocksBeach-FL.com.)

 

Indian Shores. There are currently 132 condos listed, representing a 14.7 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 were 27, which represents a decrease of 5 from the same period last year.    (for information on sales by complex visit: www.IndianShores.info)

 

Largo. There are currently 29 condos listed, representing a 21.8 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 were 4, which represents no change from the same period last year. (for sales by complex visit: www.GulfCoastCondoReport.com and click on Largo.)

 

Madeira Beach. There are currently 120 condos listed, representing a 24 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 were 15, which represent an decrease of 5 from the same period last year.   (for information on sales by complex visit: www.MadeiraBeach-FL.com.)

 

North Redington. There are currently 43 condos listed, representing a 64.5 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 was 2, which represents an increase of 1 from the same period last year.   (for sales by complex visit: www.GulfCoastCondoReport.comand click on  North Redington, www.Tides-Beach-Club.com or www.LaContessaCondos.com)

 

Palm Harbor. There are currently 7 condos listed, representing a 21 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 was 1, which represents an increase of 1 from the same period last year.   (for information on sales by complex visit: www.Palm-Harbor-FL.com.)

 

Redington Beach. There are currently 3 condos listed, representing a 4.5 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 were 2, which represents a decrease of 1 from the same period last year. (for information on sales by complex visit: www.GulfCoastCondoReport.com and click on Redington Beach.)

 

Redington Shores. There are currently 69 condos listed, representing a 18.8 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 were 11, which represents a decrease of 2 from the same period last year. (for by complex visit: www.GulfCoastCondoReport.com and click Redington Shores.)

 

Seminole. There are currently 15 condos listed, representing a 45 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 was 1, which represents a decrease of  7 from the same period last year.  (for sales by complex visit: www.GulfCoastCondoReport.com and click Seminole.)

 

South Pasadena. There are currently 78 condos listed, representing a 13.8 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 were 17, which represents a decrease of 5 from the same period last year.  (for sales by complex visit www.Harbourside-Condo.info or       www.GulfCoastCondoReport.com and click on South Pasadena or  www.SouthPasadea.FL.com.)

 

St Pete & St Pete Beach. There are currently 537 condos listed, representing a 20.9 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 were 77, which represents a decrease of 23 from the same period last year.  (for information on sales by complex visit: www.GulfCoastCondoReport.com and click on St Petersburg or for beach information visit: www.St-Pete-Condo.info)

 

Tarpon Springs. There are currently 58 condos listed, representing a 29.0 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 were 6 which represents an increase of 3 from the same period last year.  (for information on sales by complex visit: www.Tarpon-Springs-FL.info)

 

Tierra Verde. There are currently 78 condos listed, representing a 18.0 month supply. Sales during the second quarter of 2009 were 13, which represent an increase of 5 from the same period last year.  (for information on sales by complex visit: www.TierraVerde-FL.com.)

 

Treasure Island. There are currently 186 condos listed, representing a 22.3 month supply. Sales during second quarter of 2009 were 25, which represents a decrease of 2 from the same period last year.  (for information on sales by complex visit: www.Treasure-Island-FL.com.)

 

THE APPRAISER I RECOMMEND

 

In the introductory section I recommended you get an appraiser if you are considering buying or selling. I recommend is Susan Wagner 727-383-1288 or www. AppraisaLinkInc.com . I was introduced to Susan by my banks loan department when I started buying property. I found her to be professional and somebody you could not influence up or down as the numbers speak for themselves. Mention my name and she may give you a $50 discount because I send her lots of business. You can call or order online.

 

If you list with me I will reimburse the appraisal fee from the commissions I receive at closing. The reasons I believe a good appraiser is worth their weight in gold are based on experience. On one listing I said a town home on Indian Rocks Beach was worth $295,000, the appraiser the bank used said $395,000. It sold for $289,000, but it took six months to convince the bank to lower the price. On one house I recommended $89,900, another Realtor® said $139,900 and the bank’s appraiser said $200,000. It sold for $92,000 in a competitive bid situation. All sellers (you and I included) have an emotional attachment to their property because it has some special feature that any buyer should recognize as being worth more. Every buyer (you and I included) has blinders on and only wants the best value for their dollar. The sellers side is called Pride of Ownership. The buyers side is called Human Nature. Several large real estate companies use this to their advantage. The agents are taught to justify the highest price possible on paper. After all they are the Super Franchise and people pay more to work with them...nada! They get the listing, bond with the seller and slowly get them to reduce the price to where it should have been to begin with. In a declining market this tactic can cost the seller 10-15% because the value is going down while the agent is working the seller to get the price reduced. Cliff Roe Realty, Inc does not play that game. If you want us to list it high to test the market we will, but we will explain why its not in your best interest.

 

My goal has always been to provide the best service possible to each and every client. That means fairness to everyone. The news leads people to believe banks will sell at any price and regular sellers must price to compete. Banks have already discounted their asking price and won’t move much. Sellers do have to compete but there is a difference between a property that needs a total rehab and the value of a property that has been maintained all along. In this business you learn, when a property is priced right it will sell quickly. If you start out high the property will sit on the market and become stale. Even if you come down later it still has that stigma of if they are having a hard time selling it maybe I will have the same problem when I am ready to sell.

 

Cliff